Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
MSc., student, Department of Project Management and Construction, College of Fine Arts, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Project Management and Construction, College of Fine Arts, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Art, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Purpose: Decisions made regarding different dimensions of projects may be influenced by people's mentality. Optimism bias has been introduced as one of the most common cognitive biases in project management. Recent developments in behavioral sciences have caused a paradigm shift in many fields, including project management and forecasting. In recent years, based on sociology and psychology, psychological and political prejudices have been introduced as the main reasons for forecast deviations. More than two decades have passed since the introduction of this cognitive error and the investigation of its effects in the project management community. However, project management studies in our country still face a lack of practical research on cognitive aspects that are effective in decision-making. Therefore, to increase managers' awareness regarding the importance of recognizing cognitive biases during decision-making, the researchers of the present study chose the Qom Metro project as a case study and discovered the dimensions affected by this cognitive bias.
Design/Methodology/Approach: The present study aimed to enhance the understanding of the impact of optimism bias on an infrastructure project by elucidating and interpreting the participants' perspectives. Through the experiences shared by the participants, an effort was made to identify the dimensions influenced by optimism bias in the Qom Metro project. Therefore, the study adopted an inductive approach. Qualitative data were utilized to uncover and comprehend the viewpoints of individuals to elucidate the subject matter. The targeted sample for this study consisted of project managers from various roles, including the employer, consultant, and contractor. To formulate specific interview questions, the research focused on dimensions susceptible to optimism bias. Initially, the sixth edition of the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK 6th edition) was scrutinized based on the definition of optimism bias to identify components prone to this bias. Subsequently, interview questions were structured around themes likely to be affected by optimism bias to capture the interviewees' lived experiences. Through semi-structured interviews, insights on the relevant topic were gathered from the participants. The analysis of the interview content revealed components vulnerable to this cognitive bias. To validate the research findings, the identified themes were presented to the interviewees in a questionnaire format, and an average agreement coefficient of 78% was achieved by aligning the participants' responses with the identified themes. MAXQDA 22.6.0 software was employed for text analysis.
Findings: The analysis of the interviews revealed the presence of an optimism bias in the justification, risk, time, and cost of the project under study. The signs of optimism bias in the project's justification were evident in the subjects' optimism towards the determination of benefits, optimism in preliminary studies, and optimism towards the project's continuation. The analysis of the interviews revealed that in addition to optimism towards risk management, the two processes of identifying and responding to risks were also influenced by cognitive bias. Signs of optimism bias towards time and cost were categorized as "initial estimate" and "within the project". Accepting change without sufficient investigation and underestimating the changes are signs of optimism bias in the changes. Also, estimation basics, project success, and product acceptance were among the other components showing an influential sign of optimism bias. From a psychological perspective, optimism bias is defined as an unintentional deception. However, in political-economic explanations, strategic misrepresentation is considered a deliberate deception. In the present study, the most significant indicators of strategic misrepresentation were observed in the time component. The justification of the project also exhibited signs of being influenced by this political-economic explanation.
Discussion and Conclusion: Numerous studies have concluded that the effectiveness of infrastructure projects is influenced by optimism bias. The current research shows that the country's infrastructure projects are also affected by optimism bias. The data in this study is qualitative and does not assess the severity of this cognitive bias in each component. Justifiability is likely more affected by optimism bias than other components. A mistake in justification not only leads to the initiation of a wrong project but also an escalation of commitment during the project. The simultaneous influence of some components by optimism bias can amplify its destructive effects. This case study did not uncover the presence of optimism bias in certain components with potential effectiveness, such as resources. Discovering purposeful changes in estimates to achieve strategic goals is prohibited because intentional errors indicate non-compliance with professional ethics in project management. After conducting research, explaining the topic to the interviewees revealed that they are not aware of the possibility of influencing psychological factors, such as optimism bias, in predictions. The research findings suggest changing the conventional estimation approach, establishing binding frameworks, and raising awareness about the importance of bias removal to enhance accuracy and improve project planning.
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